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Yesterday, Ezra Klein got a hold of an exclusive report by Cowen and Co., a Wall Street investment bank. Their stock analysts concluded what we’ve know all along.
From the report:
"Of course, healthcare reform is a double-edged sword for Wellpoint shares. Should reform fail, Wellpoint would be a primary beneficiary."
This analysis tracks closely with what Goldman Sachs told the rest of the insurance industry back in November:
A study put together by Goldman in mid-October looks at the estimated stock performance of the private insurance industry under four variations of reform legislation. The study focused on the five biggest insurers whose shares are traded on Wall Street: Aetna, UnitedHealth, WellPoint, CIGNA and Humana.
…What the firm sees as the best path forward for the private insurance industry’s bottom line is, to be blunt, inaction.
The study’s authors advise that if no reform is passed, earnings per share would grow an estimated ten percent from 2010 through 2019, and the value of the stock would rise an estimated 59 percent during that time period.
And Goldman-affiliated analysts implicitly endorsed this view on a recent conference call for investors by saying the insurance industry’s business model going forward was going to be about cutting customers and making more profits as the industry keeps consolidating:
The market concentration for health insurance is so monopolized in some areas that insurance companies are willing to raise prices and lose customers in an effort to improve their bottom line, a leading insurance broker told Wall Street analysts on Wednesday.
In a conference call organized by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Steve Lewis, a highly regarded broker at the financial consulting firm Willis, painted a picture of the health insurance market in which consumers seem likely to be priced out of coverage.
Noting that "price competition" between insurers was "down from a year ago," Lewis relayed that "incumbent carriers seem more willing than ever to walk away from existing business."
The best thing for the insurance industry, according to Wall Street analysts, is business as usual. It will allow insurers to keep consolidating their monopolies, keep pricing sick customers out of the market, and thus keep increasing their already record profits.
And the insurance industry clearly believes the analysis – they laundered between $10 and $20 million through the Chamber of Commerce for misleading attack ads designed to kill reform. And their army lobbyists, which cost millions per day, certainly aren’t telling lawmakers to pass a bill.
The people, on the other hand, not only need a health reform bill, but they need the right one. And there’s a way to get it done.
Reconciliation is gathering steam in the Senate. 47 Senators are on board or very open to the idea, and enough others have indicated openness to bring the tally above 50. And the package of fixes done through reconciliation needs to include measures to make health care more affordable for everyone and hold insurance companies accountable.
Congress needs to understand that not passing a bill is giving the insurance companies exactly what they want and dooming their constituents to more denials of care, more medical bankruptcies, and more deaths because people can’t afford insurance. Congress needs to listen to us instead and pass something that works for the American people.
Jason Rosenbaum
Source: The Seminal March 2010
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